The political tug of war has no winner at all. It only offers a temporary relief like painkillers


By Trust Sibanda


Politics is a subject meant to set people apart. It is not about leadership, but it is about rule. They can preach democracy which remains well-articulated words that have no substance in human survival and peace.

To think of political killings and notorious prisons in the United States makes me realise that talking about heaven and politics is talking about a subject that is not linked.

The statement can be grammatically correct but logically wrong.

The cruelty in politics which is centered on power makes me not think of another outcome in the 2023 Zimbabwean election.

To think of the incumbent handing over a bunch of keys for the State House to someone who is not of the lineage of the armed struggle is an impossibility that makes the electoral exercise futile.

I am sure what most people forget is the fact that the Law of Precedence has a high probability in determining how power changes hands.

It makes the results predictable as there is nothing new on this earth. My issue today is not Zimbabwe though it can never be ignored.

A closer look at Uganda in East Africa clearly defines the law of precedence. Power in Uganda will never change hands via the ballot.



Ugandan population has no control on who rules them. Rulers choose themselves with the aid of the barrel.

The rulers have captured all the ammunition closets for their own personal gain and protection.

A bad precedence was set by Apollo Milton Obote when he wrestled power from Sir Edward Mutesa Walugembe in 1966 through a coup.

The feud between Obote and Mutesa had nothing to do with people but personal gains that come through having influence.
Idi Amini Dada pulled a shocker on Obote the founder of Ugandan Dictatorship. He came into government and captured all state mechanisms just to be guaranteed to be a life time president.

He amassed power and put everyone on a leash. Little did he know that Amini had other thoughts driven by the thirst for power.

A man of sword Amin was also removed by a sword. Idi Amin Dada never lived to be a life President.

He was overthrown by a military coup launched by rebels and exiles backed by Tanzanian forces in retaliation for attacking Western Tanzania in 1978. He ran for dear life and later died in exile as a pauper two decades later.

After the ouster of Amini, a lot of coup lites took place.

The surprise return of Apollo Milton Obote after an election when he inherited the country from the Military Commission nearly broke the precedence which he set had Museveni not had other thoughts about who must be in charge.

For the record the new old Obote was for the second time humiliated by another coup. His Excellence Yoweri Kaguta Museveni who has enjoyed the crest of the wave since 1986 made it a point that President Obote vanishes from the Ugandan political landscape.

Obote had to be escorted by his comrades via Jinja in the dead of the night as he crossed the border into Kenya.

The political tug of war has no winner at all. It only offers a temporary relief like painkillers.

Power changes hands and the fate of the subjects is not a matter of concern.



The precedence set is that voters in Uganda do not have a say on who goes to the palace but that decision is rooted in the military system of Uganda. It is very unlikely that Museveni will go via the ballot.

There are extremely remote chances that a simple X will relegate Museveni. Bobi Wine has to rethink his strategy and read history books.

In his view, President Museveni is convinced that people of Uganda owe him. In his mind he freed them from Obote.

He was once asked on when he intends to leave office for fresh legs and he had this to say, “How can I go out of a banana plantation I have planted that has started bearing fruits? For this revolutionary the harvest is still not over”.

If they claim to have liberated you and start building bridges, border gates and signing mega deals don’t rush them out as they are yet to harvest their banana plantations. The new parliament building is complete.

No one makes a plantation for another farmer.

The law of precedence is evident in the South African political landscape as well. Former President Thabo Mbeki never finished his term as he wanted to manipulate the will of the people by giving himself an extra tenure.




The observant Julius Malema put spikes on his path. Jackals in the political jungle had to waylay President Jacob Zuma and devour him on his last lap.

No doubt that incumbent President Cyril Ramaphosa is likely to step into the next term  – but will never be given a chance to cross the river.

The precedence is already set. Unlike Uganda where the barrel calls the shots, South Africa uses law books that determine how the race will be finished.

Zimbabwe is heading for a watershed election in 2023. The law of precedence is under test.

Will the men in green decide on who will run the country? The banana plantation has it been fully harvested or there are new shoots which will make someone to justify the wait? Did Chamisa read the 2017 history book?

Why did power not change in 2008? There are people who make decisions outside the ballot.

The extraordinary decisive meetings can seal anyone’s fate. The precedence.



Trust Sibanda is a businessman. He writes in his personal capacity. The views expressed are his own and do not represent the Editorial Policy of Digital Sunday Express.


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